Welcome to Happening in California, a brief look at political news, insights, and analysis of the world’s fifth-largest economy.

Each election cycle there emerges one issue that is most salient with voters. Thus far, inflation seems to be that issue, but in a recent PPIC poll 72% of California voters identified housing affordability as a big problem and 67% stated homelessness is also a big problem.

Another issue that has gained traction in California is crime — specifically organized retail crime.

The State Legislature has an opportunity to arrest the issue by passing legislation before the November election, but will it? Here are a few things to know …

Cheers,
Tom Ross | President and CEO | Swing Strategies

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The Big Picture: U.S. retailers lost nearly $70 billion in products to theft in 2019 according to a study released last November by the Retail Industry Leaders Association.

In California, national retail brands have responded to increased retail theft by closing some stores and limiting hours.

But the true impact of organized retail crime is felt beyond just the retailers … the customers and employees who experience heightened risk and the neighborhoods who lose a store suffer.

You may have seen the viral videos out of San Francisco: a man filling up a garbage bag with items to steal from a San Francisco Walgreens, a Neiman Marcus smash and grab theft, and the ransacking of stores in Union Square. And then there’s Los Angeles: rail car theft and countless more videos of retail theft like this.

The political consequences of this rampant retail theft are growing …

Since their election in 2020, both San Francisco’s and Los Angeles’s District Attorney have been among the most outspoken prosecutors in the country.

They both have made headlines for their progressive reforms to remake the criminal justice system that are seen as especially lenient on criminal offenders, despite rising crime.

As a result their “soft-on-crime” approach, San Francisco DA Chesa Boudin is facing a recall election in June and Los Angeles DA George Gascón is facing a possible November recall.

California’s criminal justice reform movement predates District Attorneys Boudin and Gascón.

• 2014: In response to prison overcrowding, California voters passed Prop 47 that changed certain crimes from potential felonies to misdemeanors.
• 2016: State voters again approved a sentencing reform measure, Prop 57, that addressed prison overcrowding by increasing parole for nonviolent offenders.
• 2018: The State Legislature passed SB10, the first law in the country to end cash bail for all detained suspects awaiting trials.
• 2020: A referendum of SB10, Prop 25, overturned California’s no cash bail law.
• 2021: Governor Newsom signed multiple reform bills including ending mandatory minimum sentences for nonviolent drug offenses and limiting the state gang enhancement law.

So what is being done now to address Californians’ growing concern with organized retail crime …

The California Retailers Association is leading a statewide coalition that is advocating for state legislation to address the key factors behind organized retail crime.

Among other things, Californians for Safe Stores and Neighborhoods is supporting common-sense bills that would enhance Prop 47 by getting serial offenders into diversion programs and strengthen protections for online marketplace transparency to disrupt the digital black market where stolen items are often sold.

The Bottom Line: The serious problem of organized retail crime in California is in some measure the byproduct of a decade of well-meaning criminal justice reforms that could now use some fine tuning. However, it is yet to be seen whether the political will exists in the Legislature to solve the issue.

If it doesn’t, crime may very well be one of the top issues in California during the November election.