Welcome to Happening in California, a brief look at political news, insights, and analysis of the world’s fifth-largest economy.

You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make it drink. Seems like an appropriate metaphor for California’s Primary Election on Tuesday.

Despite ballots being mailed to approximately 22 million voters, so far, only 3.5 million votes have been counted — putting turnout at a mere 16 percent.

Historically low turnout aside, several big stories are coming out of Tuesday night. Here are a few of the highlights …

Cheers,
Tom Ross | President and CEO | Swing Strategies

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The Big Picture: In High Profile Races, Crime was the Dominant Issue.

SF District Attorney Recall

• The AP called the race within an hour of polls closing. The recall of San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin is a clear indication that even in the most progressive cities, voters will revolt if elected officials don’t take public safety seriously.
• The implication of the recall: the issue of rising crime may impact the CA Attorney General race this fall. The current AG Rob Bonta, who was appointed by Newsom, is a progressive criminal justice reformer somewhat akin to Chesa Boudin.

LA Mayoral Race

• Rick Caruso spent $40 million in the Primary Election. But the key is he spent $40 million campaigning primarily on the issue of crime and public safety. That strategy helped make him the top vote-getter at 42 percent while Congresswoman Karen Bass 37 percent of the vote.
• Caruso may have hit his vote-share ceiling in the Primary, but the issue of crime in Los Angeles isn’t going away, and neither is his checkbook. This fall, we will be seeing even more Caruso ads focusing on public safety.

A Tough Night for Independent Candidates
The independent candidate for governor Michael Shellenberger won the race for the most column inches in the Primary Election, but he came in a distant fourth in California’s jungle primary. In the Attorney General race, Sacramento DA Anne Marie Schubert—who helped solve high profile cold cases—ran as an independent and only received 7.5 percent of the vote.

The Party Endorsement is Key
In numerous races, for both Democratic and Republican candidates, we saw that the party endorsement proved to be more consequential than millions of dollars in campaign spending.

Thank you to those who tuned in to the Rosscast Tuesday evening — it was a lot of fun. If you missed it, here is an update on the races we were monitoring on election night.

CA Election Results

To get more updates as Primary results come in and to be the first to hear about our November election night coverage, signup at TheRosscast.com

The Bottom Line: California is still a deep blue state, but there are signs that a couple of the statewide races could be competitive and California could play a crucial role in the battle for the House.

Please feel free to reach out and schedule a call to discuss our takeaways and initial analysis. We’d love to hear from you.