Happening in California 31.5
Welcome to Happening in California, a brief look at political news, insights, and analysis of the world’s fifth-largest economy.
It’s the big question everyone is asking this summer: will Governor Gavin Newsom be recalled on September 14?
The odds seem rather long, but events shape elections. And here in California, quite a few “events” are beginning to pile up that could impact the recall.
Here is a brief look at where things stand before voting begins ...
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Tom Ross | President and CEO | Swing Strategies
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The Big Picture: 22 million + California voters will receive their gubernatorial recall ballots in the mail in less than two weeks.
Here are the two questions voters will see on their recall ballot:
If the first question fails to get a majority "yes" votes, then the second question is moot. However, if the recall succeeds, then one of 47 candidates appearing on the ballot will be California's new governor. It may seem like a lot of candidates, but it’s only a fraction of the 135 who ran in the successful 2003 recall that elected Arnold Schwarzenegger as Governor.
So Who Is On The Ballot?
Notable Republicans are former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, conservative talk radio host Larry Elder, reality TV star Caitlyn Jenner, and businessman John Cox, the GOP’s 2018 governor candidate.
Yet, the most significant factor on the 2021 recall ballot may be the lack of a major Democratic candidate. Governor Newsom’s team worked hard to prevent rivals like former L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa from jumping into the race.
Events That Could Impact the Election: Governor Newsom's political career may hinge on factors outside of his control. Here is what to watch for ...
The Start of a New COVID School Year: A majority of K-12 students will be heading back to the classroom as ballots are arriving in their parents’ mailboxes. How many students will be in-person? San Francisco Mayor Breed recently warned the Delta variant could delay school reopening on August 16. Will it be a smooth start to the school year? LAUSD, the nation’s second largest school district with 600,000 students, will be requiring weekly testing of all students and staff. Could parents tip the balance in the recall? Two parent led groups are suing Governor Newsom over the statewide mandate that children wear masks to school regardless of their vaccination status or age.
Wildfires, Drought, and Blackouts: It’s early in the wildfire season, yet nearly 6,000 wildfires have burned more than half a million acres as news broke that Governor Newsom vastly overstated wildfire prevention work completed by his administration. As fires rage, a severe drought is causing emergency water cuts impacting farmers and millions of households. All the while, the state is teetering on the brink of power blackouts.
Lockdowns and Mandates: More than half the state’s population is now under mandatory indoor mask requirements as the Delta variant spreads. The governor’s COVID-19 policies added fuel to the recall fire — particularly as he defied his own restrictions by attending a lobbyist’s birthday dinner at the Michelin-rated French Laundry.
Crime and Homelessness: A few weeks ago, former U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer was assaulted and robbed in Oakland's Jack London Square. Earlier this year, Lady Gaga's dog walker was shot and her dogs were abducted in Los Angeles. And recent looting by organized retail crime rings has gotten so bad in San Francisco that stores are closing early and some permanently. Add in the homeless crisis (California has half of the nation's homeless) that has pushed into the suburbs, and there is a growing sense of things heading in the wrong direction.
The Latest Polling: Democrats outnumber Republicans two to one in California, but the latest poll by the Los Angeles Times and UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies has the recall gaining momentum with 47% of likely voters supporting the recall compared with 50% who opposed.
As we get closer to September 14, keep an eye on these events that could swing the election in either direction. Give us a ring or shoot us an email if you’d like to chat about what’s happening in California.