Happening in California 31.11
Welcome to Happening in California, a brief look at political news, insights, and analysis of the world’s fifth-largest economy.
In 2007, just fourteen years ago, California-based Apple released its first iPhone. One year later, then California-based Tesla released its first electric vehicle (EV). Both companies would come to dominate their respective markets.
Yet, while smartphone adoption by Americans grew to 85% as of this year, just 7% of Americans own an EV or hybrid vehicle according to Pew Research Center.
However by 2035, in just another 14 years, California will require all new cars and passenger trucks sold in the state to be zero-emission vehicles.
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The Big Picture: It’s more than political theater, state leaders are leveraging California’s market share to induce industry-wide changes in an attempt to impact the rest of the country.
There are about two million new vehicles sold in California each year — about 12% of the nation’s total. However, California’s share of new EV sales is 47% of the entire US market.
Nearly half of EV sales in the United States sounds like a lot, but it’s only 7% of new vehicles sold in California. There will be a lot to overcome in order to shift the remaining 93% of all new vehicle sales to EVs in 14 years.
For instance, a new study by University of California at Davis researchers found 20% of California EV owners decided to abandon the new technology. With such a high attrition rate of EV owners, it is hard to see California achieving its mandate of 100% EV sales by 2035.
The main dissatisfaction with EVs: a lack of charging convenience. In this regard, California’s mandate may help juice the EV charging market. With 20% of all EVs in the country in PG&E’s service area, the power provider has built nearly 5,000 EV charging ports in the last three years. California utilities and startup companies are racing to build the infrastructure for EV charging.
Fourteen years is an eternity in tech: just compare the original iPhone with today’s iPhone 13. Whether or not California achieves its 2035 mandate that all new vehicles sold be EV, it will have a significant impact on the market, not just in California, but the entire nation.
The Takeaway: California officials are increasingly using the state’s size to achieve policy objectives that extend beyond its borders. In addition to 100% EV sales by 2035, California was the first state to ban incandescent and halogen light bulbs and California’s greenhouse gas vehicle standards are now followed by 13 states — representing 36% of the U.S. auto market.
The next target for California officials: plastic regulations and bans.
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