Happening in California 31.14
Welcome to Happening in California, a brief look at political news, insights, and analysis of the world’s fifth-largest economy.
There has been much attention paid to the higher than usual rate of Americans quitting their jobs in 2021.
California hasn’t been immune to the phenomenon known as the Great Resignation. As a result, employers here, like elsewhere in the U.S., have struggled to fill a record number of job openings.
But additionally, in California, the Great Resignation has spread to the state capitol; and here is why it matters …
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Tom Ross | President and CEO | Swing Strategies
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The Big Picture: Labor and progressive voices could cement long-term gains in the state capitol.
California’s legislature typically doesn’t experience much turnover. Term limits give legislators a comfortable 12 years in either house and the expiration of the terms is sufficiently diluted so as to not impact one particular year. Furthermore, California’s legislative districts are more or less safe for incumbents with just a handful of swing districts.
However, due to a variety of causes beyond term limits or even redistricting, California’s legislature could see upwards of 25% turnover — the most in a decade.
Some of the capitol’s most influential Senate and Assembly members are announcing they’re done with the legislature before their term limits expire. For instance, former Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez who chaired the Assembly Appropriations Committee wouldn't have termed out until 2024, but recently resigned her seat to take a new job.
However, unlike the private sector that has struggled to fill job openings, there is no shortage of candidates to run in the large number of open Assembly or Senate seats. With a number of legislators quitting before their term limits expire, the opportunity to begin or further a political career is ripe.
The bulk of seats with vacancies are safely Democratic and the candidates we’re seeing run largely have labor activist backgrounds and/or lean toward the progressive side of the Democratic Party. It seems the centrist Democrat with a business, medical, or agricultural background isn’t eager to jump into the political fray.
The Bottom Line: We might see the trend continue for another decade where California’s legislature becomes even more progressive and labor friendly, while the electorate at large stays closer to the center.
Give us a ring or shoot us an email if you’d like to chat about what’s happening in California.