Happening in California 31.23
Welcome to Happening in California, a brief look at political news, insights, and analysis of the world’s fifth-largest economy.
Californians are in the midst of voting in the Primary Election.
Our official Election Day isn’t until June 7, but around 22 million mail ballots were sent to voters at the beginning of May and returns are now trickling in. Thus far, just over 1 million ballots have been cast.
In the days leading up to the election, I get hundreds of calls and emails asking, “What are you hearing?” So, this year on election night my brother Jim Ross, a veteran Democratic political consultant, and I will be hosting live election night coverage with special guests to answer the question, “What are you hearing?” Learn more and sign up for an email reminder at www.TheRosscast.com.
Here is a sneak peek of what we’ll be following …
Cheers,
Tom Ross | President and CEO | Swing Strategies
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The Big Picture: California’s electorate may deliver some surprises on June 7 that could shake up the General Election.
California has a top-two primary system where the two highest vote getters, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the General Election.
This feature of California’s election system can result in the exclusion of one party or the other from the General Election. On occasion this has resulted in the flipping of Congressional and legislative seats …
But this year it could result in Governor Newsom facing author Michael Shellenberger who, like a quarter of the electorate, is an independent.
In a field of 26 candidates for governor, 13 are Republicans and none are particularly well known.
Shellenberger has picked up momentum — gaining the endorsement of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, a leading state taxpayer organization, being featured in a WSJ opinion piece, as well as being a regular guest on the Joe Rogan Experience and the John and Ken Show, Southern California’s largest talk radio program.
If Shellenberger advances to the General Election, it would mark the first time since 1856 without a Republican nominee for Governor on the ballot.
SF District Attorney Recall — if progressive San Franciscans recall their progressive DA, this will indicate how pertinent the issue of crime will be in November’s general election.
LA Mayor Primary — Billionaire Rick Caruso will have spent north of $25 million to advance out of the primary. Expect him to spend 4 to 5 times that to win in November in a campaign where he’ll be emphasizing the issue of crime. This could have supplemental benefits for targeted Republican congressional candidates.
Independent Expenditures — The top twenty state independent expenditures have spent more than $15 million to date. The bulk is in Assembly races, where the battle is between progressive and moderate Democrats.
Attorney General — AG Rob Bonta was appointed and is now running for his first full term. His campaign and independent expenditures supporting him have spent nearly $2 million in an attempt to pick his challenger.
Check out the live election night Rosscast on June 7 for highlights on all the races that matter — it will be informative and fun with a great guest lineup. Check out TheRosscast.com to sign up for email reminders and to receive an early preview of the guest line up and an exclusive election night recap.
The Bottom Line: Despite being a solid blue state, California will play a crucial part in the fight for control of the House this fall, and the Primary Election will set the table for contested races in November.
Join me for the Rosscast and be the first to know What We’re Hearing.