Happening in California 31.7
Welcome to Happening in California, a brief look at political news, insights, and analysis of the world’s fifth-largest economy.
While the wildfire threatening the Tahoe Basin and the recall election threatening Governor Gavin Newsom are commanding a lot of attention, the field is quietly being set for California’s biggest political battle of 2022 — statewide ballot initiatives.
Last Thursday was the final day for proponents to submit initiatives and receive a full 180 days to gather roughly 600,000 to one million valid signatures from registered voters.
There are currently 21 initiatives that are in the process of qualifying for the November 2022 ballot and one has already qualified. Many of these initiatives will fail to collect enough signatures and no doubt, there will be more filed in the coming weeks and months. However, the longer proponents wait, the steeper the cost in a truncated timeframe.
In this edition of Happening in California, we’ll look at the curious pattern of issues that keep finding their way onto the ballot ...
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The Big Picture: Total spending on California initiative battles topped $750 Million in 2020. Some stakeholders are bearing the brunt of these costs as they repeatedly find themselves the target of ballot initiatives. Here are a few examples …
Checking the Power of Government Employee Unions
After California’s last gubernatorial recall, newly elected Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger proposed a series of “reform” ballot initiatives. One initiative known as “paycheck protection,” would have required government employee unions to obtain annual written consent from members to use dues money for political contributions. Both sides spent north of $50 million each, with the initiative ultimately failing 47% to 53%. A prior attempt to check government employee union power failed at the ballot box in 1998.
Today, California is in the midst of another gubernatorial recall election, but this time billionaire venture capitalist Tim Draper is the one proposing an initiative that would go even further and actually abolish collective bargaining for government employee unions altogether.
The Bottom Line: This existential threat to government employee unions, the largest source of contributions for Democrats in the state, could become one of the most expensive ballot initiative campaigns in state history.
Targeting Kidney Dialysis Clinics
SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West (SEIU-UHW) failed in their attempts to unionize California’s two major kidney dialysis operators. As a result, they weaponized the initiative process starting with their 2018 ballot initiative that would have limited dialysis companies’ profits. Following their defeat in 2018, SEIU-UHW launched a 2020 initiative to expand regulations of dialysis clinics, but again they lost by wide margins.
In a war of attrition, SEIU-UHW is targeting kidney dialysis clinics for a third time. So far, dialysis operators have spent $216 million vs $28 million by the unions during the last two cycles.
The Bottom Line: If SEIU-UHW is able to qualify their initiative, another costly battle will follow.
Raising the Cap on Medical Malpractice Lawsuits
In 2014, trial attorneys attempted to amend California’s 1975 law, the Medical Injury Compensation Reform Act (MICRA), that capped noneconomic pain and suffering damages at $250,000.
The trial attorney’s initiative failed the first time, but now they are back with a new initiative aiming to lift the MICRA cap.
The Bottom Line: Insurers, hospitals, and doctors are lining up in opposition in what could easily become more than a $100 million initiative fight.
The Takeaway: Initiatives are a powerful tool to bypass the legislature and take an issue directly to voters. With typically lower voter turnout in midterm elections, stakeholders may be hoping the makeup of the electorate is more valuable — giving them the opportunity to finally get the win they’ve been vying for.
If you want to know more about the status of California ballot initiatives, check out Swing's latest 2022 Statewide Ballot Initiative Update.