Happening in California 31.8
Welcome to Happening in California, a brief look at political news, insights, and analysis of the world’s fifth-largest economy.
On September 9, 1850, California entered the Union as the 31st state.
On September 14, 2021 — 171 years later — California held its second gubernatorial recall election in just the past 20 years.
The political fault lines that run through the state have been active as of late. But what do Tuesday’s recall results foretell about the future happenings in California?
Here are three quick takeaways ...
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Tom Ross | President and CEO | Swing Strategies
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Sixteen percent of California’s workforce belongs to a labor union compared to roughly 11 percent nationally. In California, organized labor is a powerful force in politics, and it flexed its muscle to defeat the recall — providing the largest source of anti-recall contributions and claiming to have led the state’s largest grand campaign in a decade.
Now, sitting on the governor’s desk awaiting his signature are bills championed by labor unions — including a card-check bill that would make it easier for unions to organize agricultural workers and what’s been called a “landmark bill” that takes aim at Amazon’s labor practices.
Look for organized labor to push for further gains in the second year of the legislative session.
COVID gave rise to the recall. Whether it was a judge’s order granting recall backers more time to collect recall petition signatures, the controversial lockdowns, or Governor Newsom’s flouting of his own COVID guidelines at the infamous French Laundry dinner — without COVID, there would not have been a recall election.
Yet, despite California’s many crises — homelessness, crime, housing costs, billions in fraud — COVID altered the course of the election in Newsom’s favor. One month ago, the recall was polling within the margin of error, but as the Delta variant led to a spike in cases and hospitalizations, support for the recall dropped. Governor Newsom turned COVID into a wedge issue against his recall opponents — arguing that a “yes” vote on the recall would result in more people dying, while his policies were keeping Californians safe.
Look for California’s other crises to have a bigger impact on next year’s statewide, legislative, and congressional elections.
With Democrats outnumbering Republicans nearly 2:1 in California, the recall faced considerable long odds. However, it provided a test run for grassroot turnout operations that could impact competitive California congressional races next year.
In 2020, Republicans flipped four California House seats. Their target list for 2022 includes another four California districts. State GOP leaders utilized the recall to develop infrastructure in those targeted districts that could help tip the balance.
Look for total political spending in California’s congressional races to top the $120 million spent during the recall.
The Takeaway: California’s quirky gubernatorial recall election proves the adage that events shape elections ... and that elections have consequences. Governor Newsom along with the Democratic supermajorities in the legislature will continue to advance the most progressive agenda in the nation.
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