Happening in California 31.9
Welcome to Happening in California, a brief look at political news, insights, and analysis of the world’s fifth-largest economy.
There are just over 22 million registered voters in California — representing nearly 90% of Californians who are eligible to vote.
California’s liberalization of the electoral process in the past four years — from automatic voter registration to ballot harvesting — has drastically changed the campaign landscape.
Here is what you need to know to get smart on California’s electoral process ...
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Tom Ross | President and CEO | Swing Strategies
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Governor Newsom’s emergency order for the 2020 General Election made it the first time all registered voters in the state received a mail ballot.
The Result: In 2020, 87% of votes were cast by mail and 13% in person vs 65% of votes cast by mail and 35% in person in 2018.
Just this week, Governor Newsom signed a bill making the change adopted during the pandemic permanent — ensuring that in all future elections every voter will get a ballot mailed to them.
While California’s 58 counties have varying rules for in-person voting, the vast majority of the state’s population will still have the option of voting at polling locations on or before Election Day.
Why it Matters: No later than 29 days before the election, every registered voter will be mailed a ballot. This moves up the date when campaigns need to begin advertising in order to influence voters before ballots arrive. Coupled with the anticipation of higher voter turnout, the cost of campaigns will increase.
In 2018, California implemented the New Motor Voter Act, a law that automatically registers all DMV customers who are eligible to vote.
The Result: In just two years — 2018 to 2020 — voter registration increased by 12%. Today, 89% of eligible voters are registered in California.
California was the second state to adopt Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) and there are now 18 states with similar laws.
Why it Matters: Thus far, the turnout percentage of voters registered through AVR is lower than some other sources of voter registration. However, AVR has had a significant impact of increasing voter registration and therefore has the potential to increase voter participation in future elections.
In 2016, California expanded its law that allowed members of a household to return a voter’s mail ballot. The new law allows any designated person to drop off a mail ballot.
The Result: In 2018, organizations and campaign volunteers could for the first time collect voters’ mail ballots and deliver them to dropbox locations. The Orange County Registrar of Voters reported that people were dropping off 100 to 200 ballots.
While it seemed that Democrats outmaneuvered Republicans with the use of ballot harvesting in 2018, two years later Republicans employed the tactic to their own benefit.
Why it Matters: Campaigns, political parties, and other groups are making ballot harvesting part of their Get-Out-The-Vote efforts. With every voter in the state receiving a mail ballot, the potential growth and controversy of ballot harvesting is significant.
The Takeaway: In addition to the new voting processes above, California has also recently adopted same-day voter registration and pre-registering of 16- and 17-year-olds, with the latter resulting in 779,498 future voters when they turn 18-years-old. Despite these significant changes, California Republicans defied the odds and picked up four Congressional seats in a high turnout 2020 election. Pay close attention to the 2022 midterm in California to see if the state’s electoral changes result in a partisan advantage.
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